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2018年7月
小企业部门, 由雇员少于500人的企业组成, 是美国整体经济增长的重要贡献者. 然而, the heterogeneity of the sector can obfuscate the ways in which it actually does or does not contribute to economic growth, 因此难以制定有针对性的政策来支持这些贡献.
在这份报告中, the 12bet官方 研究所 introduces a newly augmented small business data asset to empirically address questions of small business growth, 活力, 以及经济贡献. 我们建立了一个1的样本.3 million de-identified small businesses with 追逐 Business Banking accounts active between October 2012 and February 2018. 除以3.我们从这些业务中分析了10亿笔交易，提供了一种新的每日收入视图, 费用, 为个体小企业的现金流融资. 我们使用这一数据资产对小企业部门进行修订后的细分, 以及一种新的现金流模式. These frameworks allow us to inform the contributions of different kinds of small businesses to the US 经济, as well as offer new insights about the importance of cash flow management to small business outcomes.
第一部分:
小企业部门的稳定性和动态
我们建议根据规模对小企业部门进行精细的细分, 复杂性, 和活力, and use this segmentation to identify the contributions of different small business segments to the U.S. 经济.
A very small financed growth segment of small businesses attempt to reach a scale-based competitive advantage:
- 通过大量使用外部资金支持资产投资实现预期增长
- 是增长还是下降
- 有潜力对整体经济做出相当大的贡献，即使许多失败了
许多小企业都是稳定的小雇主:
- 大多数公司雇佣5-20名员工，尽管有些公司可能雇佣更多的员工
- 可能会使用电子工资单吗
有一个有趣但不太为人所知的有机增长领域:
- 通过有限使用外部资金实现预期增长
- 是增长还是下降
- 可能包括大量在雇主和非雇主身份之间转换的企业
第二多的企业是稳定的微型企业:
- 通常没有或只有很少的员工
- 为大量小企业主家庭提供经济支持
找到一个: 总的来说，有机增长的企业创造了大部分小企业的收入和工资, 但就个人而言，它们也是最有可能退出的.
发现二: 融资成长型公司可能集中在某些行业和城市, 但每个行业和城市都有大量的有机成长型公司.
发现三: 没有雇主的小企业更有可能退出，而不是雇佣新员工.
我们对138名学员在开办后的前四年里的雇主状况进行了追踪,2013年成立了000家公司, 其中5%的人在第一年就成为了雇主.
每年, 一小部分非雇主变成了雇主, 而且这种可能性只会随着公司的成熟而降低.
第二部分:
现金流模式与小企业绩效
我们确定了代表不同现金流量管理问题的七种现金流量模式, and then use these patterns to explore the relationship between cash flow management and small business performance.
Individual firms may experience different cash flow patterns at different stages of their lifecycles. 此外，一些现金流模式在某些部门更为普遍.
更多规则模式
而很少有小企业有非常规律的现金流模式, 有些模式比其他模式更有规律.
较大的收入和费用以每周的频率出现，在金额或时间上几乎没有偏差.
与第一组非常相似，只是融资利用率高.
较大的收入大约每月出现两次，而费用大约每周支付一次.
与第三组非常相似，只是资金利用率高.
不那么规律的模式
There are qualitative differences among cash flow patterns for those small businesses with less regular cash flows.
Although the cash flow amounts do not show particular volatility, their timing is very inconsistent.
费用比收入更不稳定，而大多数其他公司的情况正好相反.
营收的频率特别低，大约每7周一次，而且金额变化很大. 融资被大量利用.
发现四: 随着时间的推移，新的小企业实现了更稳定和有规律的现金流模式，或者退出.
发现五: 成长中的有活力的公司以不同的方式从不规则的现金流模式过渡, 稳定的企业生存, 有活力的公司如果不能成长就会退出.
每个小企业部门都有拥有七种现金流模式的公司, 但有些模式在某些领域更为普遍, 尤其是在公司成熟的时候.
New dynamic small businesses are particularly prone to certain types of 不规则的ity: Financed growth firms are particularly likely to have sporadic revenues, and organic growth firms are especially likely to experience erratic timing of both revenues and 费用. 对于成长中的公司来说，这些类型的违规行为变得不那么常见了.
Data
我们构造了一个1的样本.3 million firms who hold 追逐 Business Banking deposit accounts and meet our criteria for small operating businesses in core metropolitan areas. 然后用除以3.来自这些企业的10亿笔匿名交易，以产生每日收入视图, 费用, 以及2012年10月至2018年2月这5年的融资流量.
我们还构建了一组在2013年开设商业银行账户的公司. 公司的现金流模式和行为会随着它们的成熟而变化, 这个纵向样本通过比较年龄相近的公司来控制年龄.
结论
在这份报告中, we brought new data to two conversations about the economic contributions of the small business sector—a first concerning the large contributions of a potentially small set of high-growth businesses, and a second concerning the contributions of the majority of small businesses to widespread and diverse economic growth. We use these data to offer two new frameworks in which to consider these questions—a revised segmentation of the small business sector, 以及一种新的现金流模式.
Our findings highlight the existence and economic importance of a large segment of dynamic small businesses that grow organically without heavy reliance on external financing. 在总, 这些小企业创造了可观的收入和工资份额, 而且重要的是, 是否广泛分布在不同地区和行业. While the nonemployer small businesses that make up the majority of the sector are unlikely to transition to employer status, 然而，从经济增长的其他角度来看，其中许多都很重要.
我们的发现也提供了小企业现金流动态的第一个高频视图. 全面的, 小企业不稳定, 不规则的, 以及潜在的不可预测的现金流. 许多小企业随着年龄的增长，会转向更有规律的现金流, 尽管许多公司未能做到这一点，却退出了. 值得注意的是, the kinds of cash flow issues that small business navigate vary meaningfully by segment—financed growth firms were particularly likely to face and resolve cash flow problems related to the uncertainties around revenue, while organic growth firms were more likely to experience a broader array of unexpected cash flow timing.
These findings suggest that policy makers interested in economic growth have an opportunity to focus on a wider range of small businesses than the financing-intensive high growth firms that often are the focus of small business policy, and that opportunities for productive action may exist across a wider variety of regions and industries than previously thought. While the 不规则的ity of cash flow we observe across segments warrants a continued focus on ensuring that small businesses have sufficient liquidity to grow, our findings suggest that programs that help small businesses better manage their cash flows may be equally, 如果不是更多的话, 在支持美国经济的整体增长方面发挥了重要作用.S. 经济.
